Wednesday, May 20, 2009

Buy and Hold This! 5 Ultra Low- Priced Summertime Stocks

As you know, in late February 2009, as the stock market was in extreme panic mode, I put together 5 very low-priced stocks to watch for an imminent bear market rally- a rally that took hold in full force only a week later. At the time I made these calls- I was met with extreme skepticism. Turned out I was right- and then some. The stocks I chose as potential 3-baggers, well, see for yourself how they actually fared:

Beazer Homes USA (BZH)- went from 56 cents to May 5th high of $3.95 (near 7-bagger)

Russ Berrie & Co.(RUS)- went from $1.34 to a May 19th high of $3.08 (and counting)

Las Vegas Sands (LVS) - went from $2.16 to a May 5th high of $11.94 (near 6-bagger)

Bank Of America (BAC) - went from $5.31 to a May 7th high of $15.07 (3-bagger)

Libbey Inc.(LYBI.OB) - went from $1.06 to a May 12th high of $2.75 (almost a triple)

I'd say my calls were pretty good!

Now I have a few more stocks to keep an eye on for the next few months- and for the longer term as well. Buy and hold ain't dead yet. These are stocks that can easily become 3 or 4-baggers (and even more).

Jabil Circuit Inc. (JBL)- JBL just had its credit rating upgraded from Fitch to BB+ with a revised mixed/positive outlook for the company. JBL will be paying down some serious debt over the next 1-2 years. Before the crash, the stock spent much of its adult life in the $15-35/share range- and in the event of a U shaped recovery, this one should be an easy double from its current $8/share price. In the event of a sustained rally (bear market or otherwise), this in one of those stocks that really climbs- straight up- with the market. So, it could be a a 3 or 4 bagger should things fly. True- neither the consumer, nor the automotive and aerospace industries will be coming back any time soon (blah, blah, blah)- but JBL has sustained a mountain of good and bad times like a champ- and it holds its own internationally-speaking. So it's a safer play, overall.

Drinks Americas Holdings Ltd. (DKAM.OB)- This up 'n coming beverage company, in its building stages, has Kid Rock Bad Ass Beer due out by Labor Day, 2009 (check out yesterday's RollingStone interview for more info) - with promotional units looking to coincide with his upcoming summer tour, which begins in June. This beer will be huge. The Kid is a winner, so I would bank on his beer being a winner, too. It could generate very large returns for the partners involved (and therefore stock holders). Bad Ass Beer is being brewed by the Michigan Brewing Company. Drinks Americas also recently acquired Dutch vodka maker Olifant Vodka, which will be co-sponsoring this summer's Snoop Dogg tour. Of note- In summer 2007, Drinks Americas announced a partnership with Universal Music Group's Interscope/Geffen/A&M Records to release beverages from several of its artists. Somewhere in the pipeline apparently lurks a Dr. Dre cognac - called Aftermath Cognac (Aftermath Entertainment is a subsidiary of UMG) -which was originally due out to coincide with Dre's mythical, re-worked and delayed Detox LP. Meantime- Death Row Records is working on the final touches of Dre's "The Chronic Relit.” Drinks Americas has distribution around the world (and may be working on locking in a new Asian distributor)- and has recently secured a new line of credit through Premier Trade Solutions. The stock (on the OTCBB) is currently in the 13-15 cent range- way too low. Given what is on the plate- this stock could launch at any time as word gets out to investors about this off-the-radar company. Hard to say where the stock will end up in the longer term, but, certainly, it would be worth holding for a couple of years, and certainly in the near term.

Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS)- If you believe that the financials will eventually recover to even one-half of whence they came, pre-Great Recession, this is the one for you. This ETF contains some of the big bank players and is specifically geared to triply-emulate the Russell 1000 Financial Services Index. FAS is currently bouncing between the $8-12/share range, up from the $3-5/share range that preceded the early March 2009 financials bang-up. The ETF debuted in mid-November 2008 at $29.22/share and ceremoniously tanked as the bottom dropped out of the market. This sucker has mega-major daily volume (so it's essentially manipulation-proof)- and stays pretty dang true to its chosen index- unlike some of its ETF step-cousins. Since it can leap (and fall) in leaps and bounds- it has become the defacto day-trade. However- when you get tired of trying to pin-the-needle-on-the-FAS-donkey jumping between the channels, you can easily buy and hold it for the longer term- which can mean $30-50/share at some point in 2010 when the market finally pomps and stomps its way steadily higher, despite the gloom-sayers. The RFSI is currently at about 140- and it would be at about 315 in a more normal environment, which means about 6x where the stock is now (seems that FAS goes at a 2.6x/index average clip rather than 3x). And, if you don't believe the financials will recover- well, you can buy (long) its evil twin- the Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (FAZ)- which conveniently operates the same way as FAS- only in reverse.

Image Entertainment Inc. (DISK)- I recently wrote a piece about this California-based digital/DVD distribution company. Shareholders were sent on a wild roller-coaster ride involving DISK's M&A situation with Nyx Acquisitions Inc.- which, ultimately fell apart, leaving the stock down in the 80-90 cent range. The company has received buyout offers in the $2-4/share range over the last few years- including the recent $2.75/share price offer by Nix. Yes- the economy has trounced M&A since the markets tanked- but the acquisitions environment has been improving as the markets have now, essentially, bottomed. Image has just inked a 5-year deal with Universal Music, sales are steadily improving and I would expect more buyout-news coming over the next while- bouncing this stock to the $1.50-2.00/share range. Additionally, as the overall market improves- so too will the stock prices of these kinds of companies. So this one could end up at $4-5/share a couple of years from now. Be aware that the company has an upcoming $4 million payment due to the Portside Growth and Opportunity Fund on July 30, 2009- and may have to issue equity or debt securities to raise cash in order to satisfy the obligation- said schedule and payment being subject to any re-negotiation made prior to June 30, 2009.

Stemcells Inc. (STEM)- I know, I know. A company for speculators. The stock has moved up from the lower dollar range to the upper dollar range recently, and seems to be in a holding pattern as investors try to figure out- "so where do we go from here?" My feeling is that, as the stem cell sector is in a brave new world- under the aegis of the new administration and a boat-loaded Democratic Congress- we'll have 8 years of Obama-land for which stem cell potentials to become closer to realities. This would suggest the sector- and emerging companies like Stemcells- will have very strong anticipation from the market going forward. So, as things progress from here- this stock is cheap, give or take 50 cents. Could end up at $10-12/share in 2-3 years and $4-5/share on the next stop.

All of the stocks above are speculative by nature. Do your own due diligence and come to your own conclusions.

GT McDuffy

(Disclosure: author currently holds no positions in any of the stocks mentioned in the article above)

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